10AM NHC Update & Discussion

...Ike growing in size and strength in the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces
of Matanzas...la Habana...Ciudad de Habana...Pinar del Rio...and
the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from west of Key West to
the Dry Tortugas.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located
near latitude 23.9 north...longitude 85.3 west or about 225 miles...
365 km...west-southwest of Key West Florida and about 430 miles...
690 km...southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Although the center of Ike moved little over the past few hours...
the hurricane is generally moving toward the west-northwest near 8
mph...13 km/hr. A west-northwestward motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days...which would take Ike through
the central Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Ike is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional strengthening is expected and Ike could be a
major hurricane tomorrow.

Ike is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles...130 km...from the center...and tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported from a NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft was 957 mb...28.26 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding along the coasts of Cuba and in the
Florida Keys should subside today. Above normal tides of 2 to 4
feet are already occurring along much of the north coast of the
Gulf of Mexico.

Ike is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12
inches over western Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to
20 inches possible. These rains are likely to cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous
terrain. Additional rainfall amounts of an inch or so are possible
over the southwest Florida and the Florida Keys through this
evening.

Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...23.9 N...85.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...90
mph. Minimum central pressure...957 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

DISCUSSION
000
WTNT44 KNHC 101508
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

THE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT...AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS.
THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE
HURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED.

THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE
BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY
FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS
OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME
WARM GULF EDDIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 23.9N 85.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 86.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 88.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 25.7N 90.7W 105 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 26.3N 93.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 97.0W 105 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 98.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 96.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$