Dr.Jeff Masters Update

Track forecast for Ike
A trough of low pressure is currently passing to the north of Ike, and this trough has been able to turn Ike north of due west. Ike is now moving west-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue today, taking the storm across the western tip of Cuba, where Hurricane Gustav crossed just two weeks ago. By Wednesday, Ike is expected to take a more westerly motion again, as high pressure to the north builds in. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a new trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike to the northwest.

The latest 0Z/6Z (8 pm/2 am EDT) computer models show a variety of timings and strengths for Friday's low pressure trough, resulting in a high amount of uncertainty on where Ike will make landfall. Most of the models predict the trough will arrive too late and be too weak to affect Ike, and take Ike ashore near the Texas/Mexico border. These models include the NOGAPS, GFS, and GFDL. The HWRF is bit farther north, placing landfall near Corpus Christi, and the UKMET and ECMWF are farther north still, targeting a region between Freeport and Galveston. Oddly, these two farthest north models were the southernmost ones yesterday. Suffice to say, the crystal ball is still cloudy. The entire Texas and northernmost coast of Mexico are at risk from Ike