4pm Update: Hurricane Ike

...Ike heading toward the Turks and Caicos Islands with 135 mph
winds...


at 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of the Bahamas has issued
a Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas...including Cat
Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador.


At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago de
Cuba...and Holguin.


A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas...including the Acklins...
Crooked Island...the Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged
Islands...as well as for the Turks and Caicos Islands.


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern coast of
the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to the
northern border with Haiti.


A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Northern
Peninsula of Haiti from the northern boarder with the Dominican
Republic to gonaives.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.


A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las
Tunas and Camaguey.


All interests in the remainder of the Bahamas...Cuba...South
Florida...and the Florida Keys should closely monitor the progress
of this potentially dangerous hurricane.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 21.4 north...longitude 69.7 west or about 90 miles...145 km
...East of Grand Turk island.


Ike is moving toward the west-southwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Ike is
forecast to turn toward the west on Sunday. On the forecast
track...Ike is expected to pass near or over the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or early Sunday...and
then move near the central Bahamas and the northern coast of
eastern Cuba Sunday night and early Monday.


Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 135 mph...215
km/hr...with higher gusts. Ike is now an extremely dangerous
category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations
in strength are possible during the next 48 hours...but Ike is
expected to remain a major hurricane during this period.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles...220 km.


The minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft
was 949 mb...28.23 inches.


Storm surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in the warning area near and to the north to the of
the center of Ike.


Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast
United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves
could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.


Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches are expected over the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas. Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could see 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides over mountainous terrain.


Repeating the 500 PM AST position...21.4 N...69.7 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135
mph. Minimum central pressure...949 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.


$$
Forecaster Rhome/Beven