10PM Update Hurricane Ike

...Ike beginning to strengthen...
At 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the government of Cuba has changed the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban
provinces of Matanzas...la Habana...Ciudad de Habana...Pinar del
Rio...and the Isle of Youth.

At 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for Florida Bay
and for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the west end of the
Seven Mile Bridge is discontinued. A Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect from west of the Seven Mile Bridge westward to
the Dry Tortugas.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located
near latitude 23.2 north...longitude 84.3 west or about 120 miles...
195 km...west of Havana Cuba.

Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two.
Data from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Strengthening is expected...and Ike could become a major hurricane
in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km. Key West recently reported sustained winds of 45
mph...72 km/hr...with a gust to 60 mph...96 km/hr.

The NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 967 mb...28.56 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding and waves along the coasts of Cuba
should gradually subside overnight. Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3
feet...along with large and dangerous waves...are possible in the
lower Florida Keys.

Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect the East Coast
of Florida for the next day or so. These swells could generate
dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.

Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
over western Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Florida Keys.

Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible over the Florida
Keys and extreme South Florida overnight.
Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...23.2 N...84.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80
mph. Minimum central pressure...967 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

Discussion
The SFMR instrument aboard a NOAA research aircraft measured a
maximum surface wind of 69 kt so the advisory intensity is
increased to 70 kt. Satellite images show that the eye is becoming
better defined with cooling cloud tops around it. Ike will be
traversing The Loop current within the next day...and there are a
couple of other warm eddies...albeit less pronounced...near the
projected path over the central and western Gulf. The GFS 200 mb
wind forecast shows some northeasterly shear over Ike when it
reaches the western Gulf...but also well-defined outflow over the
western semicircle of the hurricane. The SHIPS model does not
indicate much strengthening through 72 hours...presumably because
of warm upper-tropospheric air associated with a 200 mb high near
Texas. Given the otherwise seemingly favorable conditions...the
official forecast brings Ike to major hurricane status as in the
previous several NHC forecasts.
The eye has been wobbling around again but the mean motion is near
300/8. The primary steering mechanism for the next couple of days
should be the flow to the south of a deep-layer ridge near the
northern Gulf Coast. Later in the forecast period...Ike should
make a turn around the western periphery of the ridge. There is
still a question as to how soon this turn will begin. The track
models are in close agreement on the motion up to about 72 hours.
Afterward there is still some disagreement on the trajectory and
forward speed. The latest runs of the GFS and GFDL models have
shifted a little southward but the overall dynamical model
consensus has not changed appreciably. The official track forecast
for this package is quite similar to the previous one. Again...one
should not focus on the exact landfall forecast point due to the
inherent uncertainties.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/0300z 23.2n 84.3w 70 kt
12hr VT 10/1200z 23.9n 85.5w 75 kt
24hr VT 11/0000z 24.6n 87.1w 90 kt
36hr VT 11/1200z 25.2n 89.0w 100 kt
48hr VT 12/0000z 25.6n 91.1w 105 kt
72hr VT 13/0000z 27.5n 95.5w 105 kt
96hr VT 14/0000z 30.5n 98.5w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 15/0000z 35.0n 97.0w 25 kt...inland

$$
forecaster Pasch/Berg